Saturday, February 27, 2010

The Washington-based company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $16.33 billion or $2.87 per share for the fourth quarter,


Correction: Corrects the loss per share figure for the year-ago quarter.Government-sponsored home mortgage finance company Fannie Mae (FNM: News ), Friday reported a loss for the fourth quarter that narrowed from last year on lower credit related expenses, impairments and fair value losses. Further, the company said it has applied for additional $15.3 billion aid from the federal government and is dependent on the continued support of Treasury for operation of its business. The Washington-based company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $16.33 billion or $2.87 per share for the fourth quarter, compared to a loss of $25.25 billion $4.47 per share in the prior year quarter. Net loss for the fourth quarter included $1.15 billion of dividends on senior preferred stock held by the U.S. Department of Treasury.The company said that the fourth quarter net loss was driven primarily by credit expenses, which declined sequentially but remained at an elevated level, and recognition of a $5.0 billion loss on the company's low income housing tax credit investments.The fourth quarter loss left Fannie Mae with a net worth deficit of $15.3 billion as of December 31, 2009, considering unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities during the fourth quarter.
Fannie Mae said the director of Federal Housing Finance Agency or FHFA submitted a request to Treasury on February 25, for an additional $15.3 billion on the company's behalf to eliminate its net worth deficit. FHFA has requested that Treasury provide the funds on or prior to March 31, 2010.On December 31, 2009, Fannie Mae had received $15.0 billion from Treasury under the senior preferred stock purchase agreement. As a result of this draw, the aggregate liquidation preference of the senior preferred stock increased to $60.9 billion as of December 31, 2009 from $45.9 billion. It is expected to increase to $76.2 billion upon the receipt of funds from Treasury to eliminate the company's fourth-quarter 2009 net worth deficit. On December 24, 2009, the Treasury amended the senior preferred stock purchase agreement. Under the terms of amended agreement, the cap on Treasury's funding commitment to Fannie Mae will increase as necessary to accommodate any net worth deficits for calendar quarters in 2010 through 2012. For any net worth deficits after December 31, 2012, Treasury's remaining funding commitment will be $124.8 billion, less any positive net worth as of December 31, 2012.

Saturday, February 6, 2010

The recent trend towards risk aversion has become so pervasive


With the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for release; many traders believed Friday’s session could turn out to be another extremely volatile day for the dollar. While in fact the session would prove to be highly active, the impetus for the bustle wasn’t the event risk but rather the momentum behind underlying sentiment trends. Essentially, the recent trend towards risk aversion has become so pervasive that it has been able to overpower event risk that does not conform to the direct interest in unwinding high-yield positions. In the final three days of this past week, the benchmarks for the various asset classes have forged meaningful progress towards establishing a lasting bear trend that draws capital out of over-bought securities and redirects it to safe havens. This is particularly supportive of the greenback as the reversed flow of speculative funds means carry trades financed with dollar loans will encourage repatriation; and global investors will further look to the dollar for its liquidity and the backing of US Treasuries. Considering many risk-related assets (especially equities) are still in the early stages of their corrections, there is a good source of momentum. At the same time, the dollar has already retraced over 50 percent of the losses it accumulated against the euro through 2009. Does this mean the greenback’s rally can persist for as long as these other markets retrace? Unlikely. Eventually, the carry flows will be tapped and the correlation will start to break down. Yet, such a shift could still be a long way off.In the meantime, it is worthwhile to reflect on the dollar’s reaction (or lack thereof) to the January labor data. The response to the December payrolls was substantial as risk appetite was sparked not by that month’s reading but the positive revision to the November figure to 4,000 jobs added. Psychologically, this positive reading was the ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ after two years of net losses. However, this milestone has been met and now the real fundamental considerations begin. With this Friday’s report, the 20,000 net loss was unexpected and the previous loss was nearly doubled to a 150,000 drop. On the other hand, the unemployment rate would fall from 10 percent to 9.7 percent – the biggest drop since 1998. For volatility traders, this data had little direction. To fundamentals traders, the improvement in the rate in the face of job losses was a sign of discouraged American’s dropping out of the labor pool. This is not a positive turn as those leaving the pool are still without jobs (not contributing to growth) and they will likely return when conditions improve. Nonetheless, this would inevitably end up a non-event. With over 8.5 million jobs lost since the beginning of 2008, it will take a considerable pace of large payroll increases to reduce the jobless rate while still handling new entrants to the labor force. Looking ahead to next week, the docket is exceedingly light. The bounce in risk trends and pull back in the dollar through the end of Friday suggests the bear trend won’t be overbearing for Monday’s open. On the other hand, without many fundamental hurdles to worry about; currency traders may be more confident in setting positions that look for developing trends.